Werribee by election thoughts

The big swing against Labor in the Werribee state by election last weekend should give them pause for thought. Many have suggested it has wider implications across other outer suburban areas.

Crime and healthcare services and other issues are cited as reasons for a shift in voting, but here are some thoughts from me on transport.

Since Labor came into power in 2014, Werribee has had some train and bus service upgrades, but they’re still left with trains only every 20 minutes outside peak hour, and many local bus services are infrequent. Peak buses are about every 20 minutes at best, and on weekends wait times are often 2-3 times that, despite overall travel demand being similar to weekday afternoon peak.

So most people are driving for most trips, and huge population growth in and around the area has inevitably resulted in chronic traffic congestion.

The opening of the West Gate Tunnel, adding lots of car capacity from the west into the CBD, will probably make congestion even worse in the Werribee area, especially at peak times.

From an Age article about the Werribee by election- it must be miserable to face these traffic jams every day. But it’s a reminder of just how inefficient it is to move lots of people in cars – the vehicles queued would be carrying at most a few dozen people. Perhaps half a bus load.

— Daniel Bowen (@danielbowen.au) 2025-02-08T11:02:32.000Z

Apart from the West Gate Tunnel, and Regional Rail Link completed a decade ago, the other notable transport infrastructure in the Werribee area has been level crossing removals.

The lustre of level crossing removals might be wearing off. It was a genius idea in its time: big infrastructure, very visible, localised to lots of communities right across Melbourne, and making a difference to motorists and public transport users alike… especially when a rebuilt railway station was part of the mix.

But Werribee’s crossing removals (Werribee Street, Cherry Street, Old Geelong Road and the nearby Aviation Road) didn’t result in new stations, so likely didn’t have the same feel good impact as others elsewhere.

This was mostly to avoid disrupting the important standard gauge freight line that runs alongside the Werribee line. Some station upgrades were delivered, but nothing really substantial, and three of the four crossing removals were done as road over, which (particularly as a pedestrian or a cyclist) are harder to navigate and less visually appealing.

Where to from here?

This is not just a Werribee problem; it arguably is an issue in many growing outer suburbs around Melbourne.

Leaving aside the possible Federal election implications, State Labor has about 19 months to turn around the swings. Conversely, the State Coalition has the same amount of time to convince people they have a better plan.

So what could they do?

The elephant

The obvious elephant in the room is the Suburban Rail Loop. I still think this is a good idea (and no, it’s not a $200 billion project, no matter how much the Opposition claims it).

But it’s a big long term project that’ll take a decade to get just Phase One finished, and decades more for it to reach the northern and western suburbs.

I wouldn’t want it cancelled or completely paused. The danger is it would never get going again. Some Labor people seem to think that cancelling that would also risk them losing outer eastern suburbs seats.

But, before too much work has been done, there is a opportunity to do a thorough review of the project, including how to get more out of the huge investment. In particular:

• Add a small number of extra stations/precincts in stage 1 between Southland and Box Hill – it’s ridiculous that currently no stops are planned between Southland and Clayton (7km as the crow flies, but about 9km along the route)
• Go back to the drawing board and redesign the western section from the Airport to Werribee. As originally planned this just replicates or upgrades existing rail corridors, with no new stations. The west has every right to feel ripped-off by the plan as it stands. Arguably it should be re-imagined as a new line with new precincts.

And also:

They could start implementing shadow SRL express buses to help establish/induce the travel patterns that SRL will amplify, and give people some benefit from it now. (London’s Superloop buses provide an example, and in fact London is also planning a new route shadowing a proposed Tube extension.)

If they pulled their fingers out, these bus routes could be start to be rolled out before the November 2026 election. Sunshine to the Airport would be a good first step, given that journey is notoriously difficult currently other than by driving, and we’ll be waiting a while for the train.

Which brings me to…

Improving existing buses

A key issue in Werribee is people feel like government is not providing them with the services they need.

Labor needs to convince people by November 2026 that they are. The Coalition needs to convince people by November 2026 that they can (and if they’re elected, do so or risk another one term government). Quick runs on the board are what’s needed.

In public transport, that means focussing on services. Infrastructure has become too expensive and takes too long, and is also very disruptive while you build it.

On the trains there are numerous fairly quick options – starting with fixing the awful 30-40 minute frequencies in the evenings and on Sunday mornings on most Metro lines, and boosting V/Line services to stations in suburban Melbourne.

But actually I want to focus on buses, which are a key weakness in Melbourne’s transport system for everybody not in walking distance to a station. This is most people, especially in the growth areas.

Fixing the buses

The beauty of buses is you can achieve sizeable upgrades in a short time, by increasing frequency and operating hours.

Yes, bus route reform is needed in some areas. But doing that properly takes time and often puts peoples noses out of joint when their favourite bus route changes.

The Werribee/Wyndham area is a long way down the priority list for bus route reform. The network had a thorough revamp ten years ago, and has a mix of direct routes along arterial roads and others filling the gaps. There is a need to extend some routes into new estates, but the local network is mostly fine as-is.

What it really needs is more frequency, all the time.

In an ideal world you’d boost services across the bus network, all at once. Big bang, to get people’s attention. But this has implications on bus fleet sizes, and thus bus depot sizes, which would take time.

So start by rewriting timetables so that frequencies remain at the highest levels all day, every day. Get most buses out on the road at most times. Sweat the assets.

Then expand operations so at least the direct routes run every 10 minutes all day every day… just like in a city that actually wants people to use buses instead of driving.

And extend operating hours and evening frequencies to meet trains, running until at least midnight every night. Make them as convenient as trams in the inner suburbs.

The Smartbus upgrades 15 years ago also included some route changes and on-road priority, but mostly it was about hours and frequency.

And it worked. It got people on board.

PTV had a plan to keep expanding Smartbuses and bus frequencies generally, but it was never funded. Time to catch up.

Promotion

Any substantial service improvements should be promoted far more than happens right now. PTV promotion of boosted services is usually very low key, and often invisible to people who don’t use the system already.

That’s missing a lot of potential patronage growth, and crucially, mode shift from cars.

And then there’s the matter of politicians taking credit.

At present there’s little government (eg political) promotion. If you go hunting for it, you might see a media release, and maybe a few Facebook posts of politicians posing with buses, which is better than nothing, but there’s no equivalent of the big blue signs seen around infrastructure upgrades.

One of the reasons the original Smartbus rollout included bus stop totems, larger than the standard bus stop signs, was so they got people’s attention, including non-bus users such as motorists, to encourage more patronage.

Eye-catching signage and real-time departure info at bus stops would help make people aware of the upgrade, and whacking a big “Upgraded!” notice with a blue and white V on it would remind them that the government made it happen. (Hey, if they can put it on miniature trains, why not bus stop timetables?)

Okay, maybe I shouldn’t be keen for more political messing with public transport, but it happens anyway – and given government controls the service levels, you’d think they would crow about it more loudly when they deliver improvements.

Conclusion: Fix the buses

This started out as a few quick thoughts on social media and ballooned into a long blog post which has sat in my drafts folder for too long.

So to sum up:

A key opportunity for politicians on all sides is to fix outer suburban buses – for government to do it, and for others to pledge it. It’s quicker than infrastructure, and benefits a lot of people who can’t currently easily use trains.

Better PT services that reach into suburbs beyond the rail network can make a big difference to people. They can provide real relief from household transport costs by allowing families to reduce their car travel and preferably also reduce the number of cars they own.

In the process, better more usable PT services also relieve local traffic congestion, improve access to rail (and the rest of the PT network) and improve access to jobs and other opportunities, including for those who can’t drive.

Bringing these benefits to growing communities, and promoting them so they know they can make use of them, could help convince grumpy voters that governments can actually help them, and make an impact at the ballot box.

There are other issues in these suburbs of course, but fixing the buses would make a difference to many people.

The State Election is in 648 days. Go!

---

Some of this may sound familiar. The Melbourne On Transit blog has written previously about SRL buses.